MN-01, NH-02, WI-08: GOP Internal Poll Round-up

MN-01: The Tarrance Group for Brian Davis and the NRCC (9/17-18, likely voters, 8/17-18 in parens):

Tim Walz (D-inc): 50 (54)

Brian Davis (R): 32 (27)

Greg Mikkelson (I): 4 (4)

Undecided: 14 (16)

(MoE: ±5.7%)

Kudos to Brian Davis for releasing an obviously non-rogered poll, as these numbers paint a pretty bleak portrait for the Republicans here. On the generic ballot, the DFL leads the GOP by 44-39, and McCain leads by 45-43. Lagging behind the generic ballot this badly, Davis would need a series of miracles in order to pull off an upset here.

NH-02: Public Opinion Strategies for Jennifer Horn and the NRCC (9/16-17, likely voters):

Paul Hodes (D-inc): 43

Jennifer Horn (R): 39

(MoE: ±5.7%)

Maybe I’m being a bit too kneejerk here, but I just flat-out refuse to believe these numbers. And even if they were not far off, with only $146K in the bank, Horn doesn’t have the kind of resources she needs to turn this D+2.7 district red.

WI-08: Public Opinion Strategies for John Gard (9/16-17, likely voters, July in parens):

Steve Kagen (D-inc): 46 (46)

John Gard (R): 45 (45)

(MoE: ±4.9%)

I’m inclined to believe that this race is fairly close, but I don’t know if it’s this close. Still, Gard’s polls are all we’ve got on this race so far.